Best Smoke Days in Memphis, TN
Memphis, Tennessee sits in the Southeast barbecue region. Memphis is the world capital of dry-rubbed ribs and pulled pork — the city’s Memphis-in-May contest is one of the country’s three largest BBQ competitions, and local pit shops set the standard for the style. This page scores the next seven days for low-and-slow cooks in the Memphis metro, weighing rain probability, sustained wind and gusts, daytime temperature, and the wet-bulb humidity that drives the stall — then weights the result for your cut and cooker so you can pick the day with the highest odds of a clean cook.
7-day forecast for Memphis
Planning a weekend smoke in Memphis
Memphis sits on the Mississippi River in the humid Mid-South, and summer is a long, sweltering affair — high dew points, hot nights, and frequent afternoon and evening storms from June through September. Spring carries the strongest severe weather as systems track up the Mississippi Valley, while winters are short and mild with only occasional hard freezes. The most comfortable cooking lands in the spring and fall shoulders, once the river-valley humidity relents.
That thick summer air drives long, patient stalls, which suits the city’s devotion to low-and-slow pork better than almost anywhere. A sealed kamado holds an efficient stall through the worst of the mugginess and a pellet cooker manages it cleanly; the offset is happiest on the dry, calm days. Memphis is the capital of dry-rubbed ribs and pulled pork — ribs especially are a forgiving half-day cook for an unsettled forecast. Start the briskets and shoulders before dawn so the stall clears ahead of the afternoon storms, and aim the longest cooks at the settled shoulder-season weekends.
Memphis climate normals by month
Typical conditions for each month, scored 0-100 for a packer brisket on an offset — the most weather-sensitive low-and-slow cook. Temperature and rain days are NOAA 1991-2020 climate normals; wind and humidity are 2015-2024 reanalysis averages.
| Month | Avg High | Avg Low | Avg Wind | Humidity | Rain Days | Smoke Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 50.9°F | 33.3°F | 8.0 mph | 71% | 6.4 | 70 |
| February | 55.5°F | 36.7°F | 8.5 mph | 71% | 6.5 | 70 |
| March | 64.2°F | 44.3°F | 8.2 mph | 70% | 7.9 | 71 |
| April | 73.4°F | 53.0°F | 8.3 mph | 69% | 7.2 | 72 |
| May | 81.7°F | 62.4°F | 7.2 mph | 72% | 6.9 | 75 |
| June | 89.4°F | 70.4°F | 6.0 mph | 71% | 5.8 | 72 |
| July | 91.9°F | 73.6°F | 5.4 mph | 73% | 6.3 | 69 |
| August | 91.5°F | 72.6°F | 5.2 mph | 74% | 4.9 | 71 |
| September | 86.0°F | 65.9°F | 5.6 mph | 69% | 4.1 | 78 |
| October | 75.1°F | 54.0°F | 6.9 mph | 66% | 5.3 | 78 |
| November | 62.6°F | 42.9°F | 7.1 mph | 71% | 5.9 | 76 |
| December | 53.4°F | 36.2°F | 7.6 mph | 74% | 7.2 | 71 |
Historically, the best months to smoke in Memphis are September, October, and November. February is the windiest month (avg 8.5 mph) — the one to plan around.
Memphis’s smoke season, month by month
In spring (March–May), Memphis rates 73/100 — a strong window with 73°F days, 53°F nights and 7.9 mph of wind as the stall digs in and holds. Memphis in summer (June–August) grades strong at 71/100 — highs near 91°F, lows near 72°F, wind about 5.5 mph as the plateau runs long and flat. Through fall (September–November), Memphis runs strong: a 77 score off 75°F highs, 54°F lows, and 6.5-mph wind as a stubborn stall settles over the cook. Memphis’s winter (December–February) is strong, scoring 70 on 53°F highs, 35°F lows and wind near 8.0 mph as the stall digs in and holds.
Memphis’s calendar peaks in September (78) and bottoms out in July (69) where a stubborn stall settles over the cook.
Count it up and Memphis lands 11 of 12 months at Good or better, best in September at 78, though none crack the 85 Ideal mark.
With a 71 summer in Memphis, the stall sticks; paper-wrap the long cuts early and a kamado pays back the fuel.
Barbecue heritage
Memphis may have a stronger claim than anywhere else to the title of America’s rib city. The dry-rub approach—a blend of paprika, garlic, and cayenne rubbed onto the rack and cooked without sauce—is the signature, though wet-sauced ribs have equal standing. Pulled pork and whole-hog traditions run equally deep. The annual World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest draws thousands of teams internationally and has shaped a competition culture that defines how Memphis understands the craft.
Memphis climate
The Southeast’s defining variable is humidity. Summer dew points routinely sit in the 70s, which translates directly into the wet-bulb temperature that drives evaporative cooling on a brisket or pork-butt cook. Long stalls are the norm from May through September. Winters are mild but increasingly damp and storm-prone, and tropical systems through autumn can erase a planned Saturday cook with no warning. The score weighs stall risk heavily for this region — a humid day on an offset asks a lot of the fire-tender.
In Memphis, the normals bear this out: February is the windiest month at 8.5 mph, while September scores highest for low-and-slow at 78 of 100.
Cooker fit for Memphis
For Southeast cooks, the priority is humidity tolerance. A well-insulated kamado runs efficient stalls and conserves fuel through the long, hot summer. Pellet cookers handle the same conditions cleanly. An offset is rewarding when the weather behaves but the regional climate stacks the deck against it — high dew points and pop-up storms are constant variables.
Memphis grades Good or better in 11 of 12 months; on the windiest weekends, plan for gusts near 12 mph and let an insulated cooker carry the long cuts.
Pick a day with a strong score, light the fire, and stop guessing whether Saturday in Memphis will hold. The form lets you swap cut and cooker without leaving the page — your selection persists across visits via local storage. ZIP defaults to 38103 for the Memphis metro; change it any time to score a different yard.
Forecasts model regional weather, not your microclimate. Trees, structures, and elevation can shift wind and temperature noticeably from the airport-grade source we pull. Always step outside before lighting the fire.